Tuesday, November 5, 2019


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WHAT IT WILL TAKE

This is the most important poll of the year: the New York Times on the battleground states, matching President Trump up against Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, and Bernie Sanders.

Some of the key sentences:

“The Times/Siena results and other data suggest that the president’s advantage in the Electoral College relative to the nation as a whole remains intact or has even grown since 2016.”

“Mr. Trump struggles badly among college-educated white voters and nonwhite voters, though there are signs his standing among the latter group has improved modestly since the last presidential election.”

“The poll offers little evidence that any Democrat, including Mr. Biden, has made substantial progress toward winning back the white working-class voters who defected to the president in 2016, at least so far.”

“All the leading Democratic candidates trail in the precincts or counties that voted for Barack Obama and then flipped to Mr. Trump.”

“Democrats appear to have made little progress in reclaiming their traditional advantage in the Northern battleground states, despite their sweep there in the 2018 midterms.”

“Nearly two-thirds of the Trump voters who said they voted for Democratic congressional candidates in 2018 say that they’ll back the president against all three named opponents.”

“The Biden voters who say Ms. Warren is too far to the left are relatively well educated and disproportionately reside in precincts that flipped from Mitt Romney in 2012 to Mrs. Clinton four years later.”

My take: I will say it again — The Democratic strategists I interviewed for “How to Beat Trump: America’s Top Political Strategists on What It Will Take” were all worried about these very things when they told me that Trump was the favorite (or major favorite) to win in 2020.  Read this poll carefully to understand why Democrats inside their cable news bubbles do not understand what they are up against.  The latest effort by an organization affiliated with Obama campaign manager David Plouffe to combat Trump’s social media and advertising advantage in the battlegrounds is testament to how far behind the party has already fallen, with Plouffe’s quotes in this New York Times story making it clear that the strategists I interviewed for the book are not alone in thinking that spring 2020 is too late to start combating the incumbent’s massive advantages.

****

In what will apparently be a daily Wide World of News feature, here are today’s people who think Elizabeth Warren’s health care plan is bad politics, bad policy, and unrealistic:

Ruth Marcus

Steve Rattner

My take: Team Warren is going to have to figure out a way to change the plan, change the subject, or change the conventional wisdom about what she has on offer. Otherwise, Medicare for All could put her in the barrel for good. You can’t be the candidate of plans and have a plan that no one who is not on Warren’s payroll or a writer of the plan believes comes close to adding up.

****

On tap Tuesday: the start of Roger Stone’s criminal trial, some gubernatorial contests, and widely watched state legislative elections in Virginia.

My take: THERE IS TOO MUCH NEWS.

****

Top sports story: Cowboys’ win vs. Giants does nothing to impress as big plays overshadow a disturbing list of mistakes

Dallas Morning News

Top business story: US will probably keep ramping up pressure on Chinese tech firms — even if a trade deal is reached

CNBC

Top entertainment story: TV Review: ‘The Crown’ Season 3 Starring Olivia Colman

Variety

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