Wednesday, April 24, 2019

No-Equal Branch

Trump defies House Dem investigations on witnesses, tax returns.

My take: There is no way to know how quickly the courts will adjudicate these disputes. We do know that Trump’s refusal to cooperate is already unprecedented (and will become more so) and/but that every day closer to November 2020 makes it more likely that Speaker Pelosi will decide the game is not worth the candle and simply move to solve the practical and constitutional dilemmas involved by trying to beat Trump at the ballot box. Trump’s brazen attitude in an interview with the Washington Post (definitely read the interview) will infuriate Democrats, but they will likely need the courts to side with them to make any progress. Trump is clearly dug in, and his aides are apparently fully backing him.

Grrrridlock

Pelosi, Schumer have infrastructure meeting with Trump next week

My take: It is true that the most likely bipartisan compromises before Election Day are on infrastructure, prescription drug costs, and the new North American trade deal. It is equally true that, again, every day closer to November 2020 makes it more likely that Democrats decide giving Trump a political win will only help him with the voters. The model for the Democratic leadership in Congress is now George Mitchell, 1991: every decision is seen through the prism of creating an environment to help the Democratic presidential nominee beat Trump. Just as Trump is making decisions through the prism of how he can win re-election.

Kushner Victory Lap on Russia

White House adviser downplays election meddling with flip remark

My take: Kushner was politically unwise to say what he did, but it is a window into the giddiness at the White House on the Mueller outcome and a sign that they will continue to try to rewrite history in advance of the election. The backlash against the remark will hurt Kushner’s ability to be an honest broker on Middle East peace and immigration.

Biden Starts Broke and With Video Chaos: NY Times

Dependence on big bundlers both tenuous and off-message.

My take: This quote from former Pennsylvania Governor (and strong Biden backer) Ed Rendell tells you all you need to know:

“Mr. Rendell recommended that Mr. Biden invest offline, too, pitching an old-fashioned direct mail program to reach older potential donors and tap into the ‘general consensus’ of his electability against Mr. Trump.

“‘There is enough of a consensus there that those little old ladies — even if they’re a little on the progressive side — would write a $25, $50, $100 check to Joe, maybe four or five times in the next year,’” Mr. Rendell said.”

2 thoughts on “Wednesday, April 24, 2019

  1. My problem with using present day political calculus in deciding to impeach or not, is that 4, 6, or 9 months from now, Trump will be doing more crazy sh.., by impeaching now and watching the Senate ignore, when those future problems occur, it will fall directly on the lap of one Mitch McConnell, where it belongs. If Dems do nothing, in the face of constitutional wreckage, they are complicit for future events too.

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  2. Love reading your analysis. I’m 60 yr old in OH. Really like Mayor Pete. Think Trump would have hard time hitting him.
    Major worry are Dems tacking so far left they lose 10 points in the center and give it to Donny.
    Sounds silly but that is what Midwest candidates like Amy and Pete get that Warren and Harris are lost
    Keep up the good work

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