Thursday, October 24, 2019


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GROUNDHOG DAY AND DEJA VU ALL OVER AGAIN

My new book, “How to Beat Trump: America’s Top Political Strategists On What It Will Take,” comes out on Tuesday.

Here is a first look at the book’s content:

CHAPTER ONE
 
THE MOVEMENT
 
LESSON: UNDERSTAND DONALD TRUMP AND HIS VOTERS.
 
At 4 PM on September 20th, 2016, a little more than six weeks before Election Day, Donald Trump’s private plane touched down on the single runway of Albert J. Ellis Airport in Richlands, North Carolina. Richlands, so named because of the quality of the soil, was the first town in Onslow County to have both its own library and museum. In 2016, its population was about 1,500 souls.
 
Donald Trump exited the plane, was loaded by his Secret Service and staff into his motorcade, and traveled thirty minutes to Kenansville, an even smaller town, with a population of 847, for a rally that evening at the Duplin County Event Center. The venue had previously hosted monster truck exhibitions, high school graduations, wrestling tournaments, and an animal charity showcase where prizes included “cash, jewelry, and guns.”
 
As the motorcade made its way through the bucolic countryside, the campaign staff and traveling press corps noticed the traffic was particularly heavy for a late-afternoon Tuesday in such a sparsely populated rural area.
 
When Trump arrived shortly before 5 PM, he found over ten thousand people outside the event center, with thousands more inside, waiting for him. He gave a version of his Mr.-Trump’s-Wild-Ride stump speech, hitting many of his favorite themes: Mexico, China, immigration, the vile media, corrupt Hillary Clinton, and the rigged election system. “And we know it’s a rigged system,” Trump said. “All you have to do is ask Bernie Sanders and you’ll see.”

To continue reading, click here.

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This is our new normal for the foreseeable future.

The same things happen every news cycle.

1. Democrats and their media allies (a) tout new revelations which make the case for impeachment even stronger and (b) look for cracks in the support for the president among Senate Republicans.

2. Congressional Republicans, the White House, and their media allies (such as the Wall Street Journal editorial board) can’t argue the facts so they argue —  and disrupt — the process.

3. Democrats know the clock is ticking against them on completing a successful vote on articles of impeachment to send to the Senate, but/and they give the media laughably unrealistic timelines about when they can finish, while also implicitly admitting the timelines are probably laughably unrealistic.

(Per the Washington Post, Democrats think they can start public impeachment hearings by “mid-November….Increasingly Democrats are privately acknowledging the inquiry could easily drag into December.”)

4. Senate Republicans tantalize Democrats and the media with occasional comments suggesting the president’s support could crumble and he could be removed from office – and then one of them utters something like what John Cornyn said Wednesday, which pretty much stops the parade dead in its tracks: “Republicans I don’t believe think it’s in their long-term policy interest to divide the party in order to elect Democrats. That’s what I think the calculation is.”

5. Democrats angst among themselves and sometime to the press about (a) the political potency of the Republican complaint about closed-door hearings; (b) when to start public hearings; (c) if smart staff lawyers (and not members of the House) should ask the bulk of the questions to witnesses in the public hearings; (d) what should be in the articles of impeachment; (e) how to keep Adam Schiff the face of impeachment for as long as possible before letting Jerry Nadler become the face of impeachment; and (f) whether Nancy Pelosi was right all along that impeachment is a bad idea politically (they don’t worry about this one enough).

6. The press writes stories about signs that it will be hard for any of the Democratic presidential candidates to beat even an impeached Donald Trump.

For example, the Democratic financial establishment is back to freaking out over Elizabeth Warren, and realizing that publicly freaking out about her only makes her stronger. 

For example, Joe Biden’s lead over Donald Trump in a mythical Wisconsin general election match-up might have actually shrunk during impeachment.

7. I write in Wide World of News that (a) regardless of (actually because of) all the evidence that House Democrats are finding about Donald Trump and Ukraine, it is likely to take them much longer to finish their part of the process than they think or claim; (b) regardless of the evidence, Republicans will in the end likely circle the wagons because they believe they have no choice; (c) Trump is poised to take advantage of any procedural mistakes the Democrats make; (d) Speaker Pelosi’s original, long-running misgivings about pursuing impeachment without broad Republican support have a good chance of proving well founded; (e) you should get ready for the Tuesday release of my book, “How to Beat Trump,” in which top Democratic strategists worry that none of their candidates are taking the necessary steps to be in a position to win a general election, leaving them very concerned that Trump will be reelected.

My take: Get used to all this.  None of it is changing anytime soon.

****

Two essential reads in the New York Times:

1. The Deep State’s war with Donald Trump – or is it Donald Trump’s strawpersons of the Deep State?

2. The economic basis for the massive protests taking place all over the planet.

****

Big Four

Iowa

Beto O’Rourke pitches assault weapons ban and buyback to receptive Iowans.

Julián Castro starts potential last stand in Iowa with ‘first chance’ criminal justice plan.

New Hampshire

Volinsky running for governor, 2nd Democrat in race.

South Carolina

Longtime SC Sen. Gregory won’t run for reelection in 2020.

****

Top sports story: Strasburg stars as Nats rout Astros 12-3 for 2-0 Series lead

ESPN

Top business story: ‘There are lives at stake’: PG&E criticized over blackouts to prevent California wildfires

CNBC

Top entertainment story: New ‘Hocus Pocus’ Movie In the Works At Disney+

Deadline

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